Markets and Trends
Trends in Surface Computing devices
The current multitouch (Surface Computing) market can be split into four segments based on size and capabilities (and price):
- Portable Surface Computing: Palm-sized (< 8”) devices such as the iPhone, and upcoming media players or MID/UMPC whose UI is managed using a few fingers. Touch sensing technologies is mostly capacitive.
- Personal Surface Computing: 8” to 30” devices on which you can interact using your whole hand or with both hands, but you can be the only user. Examples of such Personal Surface Computers are the HP’s Touchsmart Tx2 (12”) or Dell’s Latitude XT2 (12”). Other solutions such as Stantum’s SMK (15.4”) or 3M Multitouch (19”) are screen-only (no computer). These represent the future of tablet PC designs, slowly evolving toward (and merging with) the eBook segment. Most touch sensing technologies are capacitive with a few resistive. Price goes around 2,000€ top with computing power.
- Collaborative Surface Computing: The king segment of the market, > 30” devices that support the multitouch interactions of two and more users on the same screen. For this kind of size, display technologies are mostly based on video-projections with new designs coming out that use LCD. Touch sensing technology is IR vision-based (Resistive or capacitive, in-the-LCD technologies can’t go up to these sizes yet). Still, vision-based touch sensing also offers object recognition capabilities enabling unique tangible interactions with the device. Prices start at 9,000€ and goes up through the roof to very (very!) large sizes.
- Dual-touch (sub-) Surface Computing: We define Multitouch as three or more finger touches implemented by technologies that have been designed from scratch to support this capability as opposed to single-touch (formerly touch) technologies that are being “pushed” to support well… two fingers max, with only very few gestures (i.e. rotate doesn’t work well). Sizes range from 19” up to 72” with prices from few 100€ up to 3,000€. Cheap yes, but you get what you pay for.
It’s part of our job to track the surface computing industry since we provide a portable software platform (IntuiFace) that runs on all (well, most) of these. The picture below shows the positioning of each device (27 so far) along a price/performance curve. The performance is a composite indicator comprising data such as screen technology and resolution, touch acquisition frequency, number of simultaneous touches, etc… Each device name is made of its brand acronym (we reserve the full disclosure of this information to our customers) and its screen size. We have clustered the four market segments along this curve.
Predictions
As we move forward, we can make the following predictions for Collaborative Surface Computing:
- LCD will replace video projection,
- Resistive or capacitive touch sensor technologies will replace vision-based technology starting with the smaller sizes,
- Price will then (mid to end of 2010) dramatically drop to get to what Plasma TV set price was 10 years ago (3,000 to 4,000€) and follow the same price/performance curve that has led to incredible LCD Full-HD TV sets priced at 500€.
- All TV sets will have multitouch capabilities 5 to 7 years from now (as well as gesture-based remote control, but that’s for another topic), and will also then be used horizontally in the family room.
- Resistive technology will improve to include tangible capabilities back.
- Both resistive and capacitive technologies will also include touch feedback as vibration leading to an even more natural and immersive experience.
Welcome to a future begging for user experience innovation!